In my prior post, I asked "Is there an actual 10-year cycle here?"

This 1999 report from the Brookings Institution shows buildig permit issuance for Metro DC bottoming out in 1991 and climbing through 1996-1998.

The Washington Times claims that we're in a housing bubble.

Washington area home prices surged 24 percent last year, twice the national rate and the fourth straight year of double-digit gains, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Since the late 1990s, home prices have doubled in northern Virginia and many other parts of the region.

Richard DeKaser, chief economist with National City Corp., estimates that Washington is one of 28 U.S. cities where houses are 10 percent or more overvalued, based on income levels and other factors, and could be in a bubble.

...

"There is no countrywide bubble in house prices, but there are bubbles in house prices in as many as 27 U.S. cities," said Michael Youngblood, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., with the most vulnerable areas those where house prices have far outstripped income growth in recent years.

"It's certainly possible Washington will get into the bubble category," he said, suggesting neighborhoods here that have "cracked seven-digit" house prices are the most suspect at present.

I'd have to agree there, for many reasons. Externally, many of the $600-800K homes in the area have cheap plastic siding, brick facades, tiny yards, and cheek-by-jowl siting. Who wants a $3000/month mortgage and yet still have to look at your neighbor's wall, eight feet away? Those aesthetic failings don't seem to be affecting home sales, however, given the recent surges in both home prices and property tax assessments.